Mobile War
For those of you that might not have heard (might want to get out of your caves), Apple announced their new iPhone 4 last week and it looks pretty impressive. Not that the features being released on the phone are unheard of features, but the fact that these long awaited features have finally made it onto the iPhone and made it that much more complete. However this isn’t a post about praising Apple & their new product, but rather a post regarding the two major competitors on the market at the moment, and the possible impacts that Microsoft’s future mobile device might have on the mobile market.
Apple & Google are the new titans in the mobile market. They have gained a combined total of 78% in regards to the mobile market place and from the looks of it, Google is gaining ground pretty quickly. There’s an argument that the 59% of the market owned by Apple includes iPod Touches and iPads, while the Google data shows only their Android Smartphone’s and thus renders Apples data inconclusive. I don’t really agree with that as Google has a dozen or more different handsets spanning multiple carriers on the market running their OS while Apple only has a single phone on a single network. Even if you include their two other products, Apple still has fewer products on the market than Google, and a greater share of the market. Most impressive indeed. Will it last however? I’m not to sure. I don’t think that Google will overtake Apple by selling a single phone, I don’t think anyone can. I do believe that if Google keeps pumping enough handsets onto the market that they’ll be able to catch Apple sooner than later.
The Google Android platform is a solid platform and up until iOS 4.0 it was superior when it came to features in my opinion, but lacked a solid piece of hardware to power the latest and greatest Android features as they were designed to be operated. The app fragmentation has also hurt the handset I believe and until Google gets a grip on that issue, I have a bad feeling that developers will continue to move to iOS. That works great for me as I own an iPhone, but does not look well for Android phone owners. Android owners argue this point, saying that the Android Market now contains 50,000 apps and is still going strong. While that may be true, they don’t realize that the Android Market place has been in existence for 21 months now, and only contains 50,000 apps. Apples App Store contained 185,000 apps within its first 21 months of existence. There’s your proof of the preferred platform. Google Android can be developed for on any platform as it uses Java to create its apps while Apple iPhone Apps must be created on a Mac. The Android OS has a greater range of development options and thus a larger developer audience, however the Market Place contains 27% of the apps that the Apple App Store contained at 21 months of life. Why? Fragmentation of the Market Place due to too many handsets on the market using a varied version of the operating system. A solid example is multi-touch. Not all phones support multi-touch, and so developers must choose to either add multi-touch support for the few handsets that our out on the market and loose profit by abandoning those that do not support multi-touch, or develop the app to support both hardware configurations which appears to be a real pain from everything that I’ve been reading.
I believe that the better platform at the moment is the iOS. Android would be the perfect platform if they followed suit with Microsoft and developed their OS and imposed hardware restrictions on the manufactures that use their Android OS. Developers would no longer need to worry about fragmentation and I think it’s safe to assume that developers would flock to the Android platform knowing that they can write once and run on all handsets. Considering that Google provides the OS for all manufactures to use on their handsets, I think that the Android Market share will surpass the iOS Market share just by shear volume of handsets on the market. Developers would love it, it would be a gold mine for them to dig into and leave the Apple iOS behind.
What about Microsoft? They have their new Windows Phone 7 coming out here pretty soon and it looks rather enticing to me. The support of .NET and XNA will allow developers to rapidly develop games or software using existing code that they’ve used in previous applications they’ve developed using Visual Studio. It uses Silver light for the actual applications on the device, and while it provides a nice user experience, I think that the learning curve for new developers will be steep. I tried to get involved in it and was confused and frustrated by the lack of documentation provided. Yes it’s out there, but you have to find the documentation on how to execute something in particular, then double check in the MSDN docs to make sure that this is valid to use with the .NET Compact Framework.
Microsoft needs to build a repo just like they did for the XNA Framework for Windows Phone development. It would cover development of Silver light apps for the phone and developers could refer to it instead of traversing the internet in search of Windows Silver light examples that they need to convert into mobile apps.
Will Microsoft’s new Mobile OS compete with Apple & Google? Sadly I don’t really think it does. While Microsoft’s new OS is really slick and it does exactly what the iPhone did 3 years ago. It’s innovative and a fresh new way to use a mobile phone, however I just don’t think they have what it takes to compete. In order for the platform to succeed you need developers on it. If you confuse the developers or don’t provide the support they need, then you will have a failing OS. Thankfully Microsoft has typically always provided great support for development on their technologies, so I’m hoping to see some sort of beefing up on the Windows Phone documentation & support before it actually hits store shelves.
What do you think?